Отправлено: 06.04.12 10:10. Заголовок: Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models

Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models: Mathematical and Statistical Foundations of Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification
Committee on Mathematical Foundations of Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification; Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, National Research Council
NAS Press | 2012 | ISBN: 0309256348 9780309256346 | 185 pages

Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models discusses changes in education of professionals and dissemination of information that should enhance the ability of future VVUQ practitioners to improve and properly apply VVUQ methodologies to difficult problems, enhance the ability of VVUQ customers to understand VVUQ results and use them to make informed decisions, and enhance the ability of all VVUQ stakeholders to communicate with each other. This report is an essential resource for all decision and policy makers in the field, students, stakeholders, UQ experts, and VVUQ educators and practitioners.

Advances in computing hardware and algorithms have dramatically improved the ability to simulate complex processes computationally. Today's simulation capabilities offer the prospect of addressing questions that in the past could be addressed only by resource-intensive experimentation, if at all. Assessing the Reliability of Complex Models recognizes the ubiquity of uncertainty in computational estimates of reality and the necessity for its quantification.

As computational science and engineering have matured, the process of quantifying or bounding uncertainties in a computational estimate of a physical quality of interest has evolved into a small set of interdependent tasks: verification, validation, and uncertainty of quantification (VVUQ).

Contents
Summary
1 Introduction
2 Sources of Uncertainty
3 Verification
4 Emulation. Reduced-Order Modeling, and Forward Propagation
5 Model Validation and Prediction
6 Making Decisions
7 Next Steps in Practice. Research, and Education for Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification
Appendix A Glossary
Appendix В Agendas of Committee Meetings
Appendix С Committee Biographies
Appendix D LIST OF ACRONYMS