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Отправлено: 09.06.08 02:25. Заголовок: Google помог (оригинал на английском)
VOODOO METHODS: DEALING WITH THE DARK SIDE OF GEOPHYSICS Greg Hodges, Fugro Airborne Surveys, Toronto, Canada Abstract The exploration industry has been plagued since the dawn of technology with near-magical oil, gold and waterfinders. They do untold damage to the reputation and business of honest geophysical applications and research. A geophysicist with sound scientific knowledge can usually recognize when geophysics is "from the dark side", but it can be difficult to convince non-scientists. Exposing the voodoo methods can be a complex and expensive nightmare of politics, marketing, and litigation. Some common characteristics of voodoo geophysical methods are: dubious theoretical bases, fantastic levels of instrument sensitivity, phenomenally accurate interpretations, extraordinary levels of secrecy, and combative or evasive response to challenges. The evaluator should also determine whether the questionable method is the product of over-zealous marketing, misguided science, or fraud. Funding agencies and corporations must insist on assessment and approval by technical experts before investing in a new system. The technical investigators must be open-minded, but rigorous. The tests must be definitive, and the testers must have the right to publish results. Fraudulent methods shy away from technical testing and publication, and refusal of the purveyor of a new system to comply with evaluation and publication of results must be viewed with the greatest suspicion. Introduction What is Voodoo Geophysics, and why is it called the Dark Side of Geophysics? These are systems that either misapply the science of geophysics through lack of understanding, or use the mystery (to a layman’s eyes) surrounding the science to fleece the unwary investor or agency. It comes in many shades; from overselling of normal geophysics (OS), to misguided (but honest) scientists (MS), to the darkest of all, the blatant scams (BS). How do we recognize when something comes from the dark side of the exploration business? I am reminded of a quote, I think from a senior judge. It goes something like: “I cannot define pornography, but I know it when I see it.” Any geophysicist with a well-rounded scientific education will very quickly start to suspect a voodoo geophysical method when they see it. The challenge is to be able to support our intuitive analysis, to prove conclusively to non-geophysicists that the system is suspect, and perhaps quantify the level of suspicion. One may ask why we should concern ourselves with voodoo geophysics; as long as we as individuals recognize bad science or scams when we see them, we can avoid them. However, all the forms of dark-side geophysics damage the image and industry of geophysics when they fail to deliver on promises. It is very important to realize that in the eyes of non-geophysicists our systems are all “black boxes” – they often cannot distinguish good geophysics from bad. If a county water board loses a quarter million dollars on a failed attempt with a voodoo black box to map a saltwater horizon, it will not look kindly on the next mysterious black box that comes along – whatever it might be. The voodoo methods also draw off research or survey money that might be better applied to new methods with a potential for real success. The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author, and not necessarily those of Fugro Airborne Surveys. The first paper ever published in Geophysics, issue 1, volume 1, page 1, by L.W. Blau, and was titled “Black Magic in Geophysical Prospecting”, and was a discussion of the scams of the time. The editor at the time noted that “the geophysicist may be called upon to explain scientifically just why the proposed method fails”, and that “the geophysicist may be forced to spend more time on such an investigation than is justified”. How little times have changed! A number of the scams (called “doodlebugs” at the time) sound eerily familiar. Instead of “corpuscular rays” the systems now detect quantum effects, and “vibrations” specific to every molecule. Shades of the Dark Side: Types of Voodoo Geophysics One cannot draw a clear line between geophysical science and voodoo methods. It is a long, slippery slope from honest geophysics into the dark side of geophysics. Overselling Overselling is the most innocuous type of dark side geophysics, and we have probably all been guilty of it at one time or another. This is generally the result of too much enthusiasm, or desperation to seal a deal. OS geophysics generally is real geophysics – the science is good, the methods have been well documented for many applications, and the methods can be very common knowledge. However, they might be promising impossible depth of detection, unlikely resolution or sensitivity, or immunity to expected noise levels. It may be that the system is being offered for something it was not meant to do. Overselling is touching on the Dark Side, but it is not necessarily Voodoo. Misguided Science Misguided Science (MS) is that part of the dark side in which the seller is trying to do good geophysics, but really has no understanding of the physical principles or limitations of the method or system being offered. The system may not have a true physical principle, but the seller believes that it is good geophysics. They are not trying to defraud anyone – they just do not understand the physics of their method, and often they do not even know that they do not understand it. The MS method may be a normal geophysical system, grossly mis-applied. An example might include offering groundpenetrating radar to thousands of metres of depth. The fields of scientific research abound with stories of MS, often called “Pathological Science” (Langmuir, 1953, Turro, 1998) or Voodoo Science (Park, 2000). Cold Fusion is a classic example. On the other hand, the MS seller may have no idea how his system is supposed to work, but experience with the system convinces him that it does work. Water dowsers are in the category of misguided science – most of them cannot tell you how it works, but they believe that it does. Some may have truly fantastic explanations for how it works. Never forget, that coincidence, intuition, and blind luck will provide enough successes to keep the misguided scientists convinced that they are on the right track, and perhaps to convince new users to try it. Blatant Scams When Voodoo geophysics crosses the line into dishonesty, then they have reached the darkest side of geophysics – the Blatant Scam, or BS, for short. The BS artist knows that what they are selling is no good – or at least someone in their organization will know that. Secrecy becomes a key ingredient in their marketing of their product. They know that if anyone sees inside their system, or that if they try to explain how they do it, then any reasonable scientific person will recognize the impossibility. The avoidance of scientific scrutiny is the key ingredient in BS. These purveyors will not likely show up at a conference like SAGEEP – there would be too many questions that they could not answer. Their marketing will be made most often directly to the media, and to companies and government departments at the highest managerial levels. The Road from Misguided Science to Blatant Scam The test of a misguided scientist is his reaction when proven wrong: does he go back to the lab, or continue selling it despite his knowledge that it is not good science. Often the misguided scientist has invested a lot of money, and his entire reputation, in the voodoo method, and is extremely reluctant to let it go. Park (2000), paraphrasing Gary Taube’s book on cold fusion, describes this as a “Pascal’s wager”. Blaise Pascal was said to have advised: “Do not hesitate to wager that God exists. If you win, you win everything.” A desperate misguided scientist, seeing a dream of fame and fortune fading away and with his reputation (and possibly his finances) in tatters, may gamble everything including his honour to sell his ideas, on the slim hopes of saving the day. Case History: the Gravity Wave Oil Sniffer A classic BS geophysical system was described in the magazine Discover, in 1984. It seems that a television repairman / inventor name Bonassoli from Italy and a fast-talking Belgian Count approached the top officials of Elf Aquitaine in 1979 with a new airborne system to detect oil deposits. It could also (so they claimed) detect enemy submarines beneath the surface of the ocean. Senior managers of Elf Aquitaine were taken for flights over known oil fields, and the instruments (hidden behind curtains) beeped and flashed at the appropriate moments. Various images appeared on the TV screen. Bonassoli explained that the system worked on gravity waves (which are still only theoretical). No scientists had been brought to the testing, and no one was allowed to examine the instruments. Elf signed a deal for $80 million, guaranteeing to Elf exclusive use, and incredibly, guaranteeing to Bonassoli that no one need be told how it worked, or what was inside. Despite repeated failures on subsequent tests, which Bonassoli blamed on the equipment being too sensitive, Elf signed a second contract for $133 million. Eventually, Elf got suspicious, and demanded that some of their scientists be allowed to examine the equipment. Bonassoli allowed them a quick look, and what they saw – a simple signal generator – raised their suspicions. Elf brought in Jules Horowitz, chief of R&D for the atomic agency. He demanded a demonstration of part of the system, which Bonassoli claimed could see through walls. Horowitz placed a metal ruler behind the wall, and sure enough, a straight bar appeared on the screen. However, unseen by Bonassoli, Horowitz had bent the ruler into a right angle! Horowitz blew the whistle, Bonassoli skipped the country, and Elf quietly terminated the contract – but had lost $150 million on the misadventure. Recognizing Geophysics from the Dark Side The story above has many classic signs of voodoo geophysics, in this case truly a scam. The characteristics of geophysics from the dark side are listed below. With each is a weight used to accumulate points to give a quantitative estimate of the probability and type of geophysics from the dark side. It is important to keep in mind that many of these characteristics call for subjective judgment of the system – the list cannot be used to prove that a method is voodoo. Almost all true geophysical systems will rate some small score on this test. It is the highest scores that give an indication that further testing would be prudent. 1. Uniqueness: Marketed by small company or one-man operation. No other comparable systems. (5) 2. Limited Availability: Not for rental. Only comes with a "highly trained" operator. (5) 3. In Situ Verification: System requires "calibration" on deposit or input sample. (5) 4. Simple Field Operation: Unusually simple, standard problems (noise, positioning) are minimized.(5) 5. Fantastic Accuracy: Fantastic accuracy of measurement, depth of exploration, reliability of results etc. (10) 6. Dubious Theoretical Basis: Unproved, applied contrary to accepted methods, deliberately vague or blatantly false (20) 7. Doubtful Explanations: Response to technical questions and criticisms are ad hoc, evasive, assumptive, unsubstantiated, litigious, or aggressive. (20) 8. Phenomenal Interpretation: Proprietary methods return phenomenally accurate results. (20) 9. Non-Technical Marketing: Marketed directly to media and/or management. No technical publications. (20) 10. Secret: Actual measurement method is secret. (40) Each characteristic is assigned a weight. If a characteristic has a low weight, it is because there are voodoo methods that do not show this characteristic, or real geophysical methods that do. However, any characteristic with a high weight is a strong indicator that the client should look more closely at the method before investing. A score can be calculated by assigning a value from 0, for does not apply, to 5, for a strong match to the system. Multiply the value for each by the weight, and divide the summed score by 7.5 to render a total score out of 100. Uniqueness When a company develops a new method, they try to keep it exclusive as long as they can. However, most successful geophysical methods are soon duplicated by others, and our industry supports competition. If a method has been offered by just one company for years, with no competition from similar systems, you have to wonder about the validity. Another, more extreme, version of exclusivity is the system that requires a unique individual to operate it. These may include “bio-sensor” systems, where the operator is an integral part of the circuit. There was one BS system offered by a company who had only one operator who knew how it worked. When he was no longer available, they could no longer offer the method! Limited Availability Most geophysical methods are offered by more than one company, and often systems can be rented. However, voodoo methods often are not available to anyone, even with training. I have had oversellers offer to run surveys, but refuse to rent the equipment for our operators to use. The explanation was that the operators had to “believe” in the system. I reasoned that if our best field operator couldn’t operate it, we didn’t have any use for it. In Situ Verification Many voodoo methods, particularly Misguided Science, require that they be calibrated over one or more known targets to establish the anomaly that will be required. The survey results often show a simple extension of the geology at the calibration site, or a rough interpolation between multiple sites. It is common, however, for a real geophysical system to survey a known target to establish exactly the signature of that target – so this cannot be relied on totally as a dark side indicator. “Recalibration” of the data after the survey allows a voodoo method to adjust their interpretation to fit the expected results. This is not unique to voodoo geophysics. Interpreters commonly model varying velocities or densities to get the best fits, but voodoo methods often rely completely on this approach. A common variant of the verification condition are methods that require a sample of the target material (the “bait”) to be put into the system. Sometimes this sample is described as necessary to “harmonically interact with the emanations” specific to the material being sought. However, a survey of all of the real geophysical systems on display at all the recent geophysical conferences found that there was not a single real method of any kind offered that required a sample of the target to be inserted into the instrument. Simple Field Operation Many of the voodoo methods are deceptively simple, considering the tremendous results that they return. Consider what it takes to operate real systems that see to great depth: multi-person crews laying out transmitter loops or arrays of geophones. There are few deep detection systems, other than potential field systems, that are operated by one person and return results in the field, real-time. The ultimate in simple field operation are those systems that can be applied to photographs or maps of the target area. These are truly time savers! Simplicity often appears in the final data, as well. The processing might be very simple, and the final results are often very simple: blank when there is no target, and a big bright spot when there is an anomaly. A single ‘X’ over the target has always been the wish of geophysics users. Fantastic Accuracy If a voodoo system cannot offer better accuracy, deeper penetration, or higher resolution than main-stream geophysical methods, no one would take a chance on it. Fantastic depths of exploration are promised, and detection of extremely subtle changes are often claimed. Voodoo systems generally neglect or deny the normal laws of loss-of-resolution with distance, offering tremendous accuracy at kilometres of depth. The anomalies measured with voodoo systems, especially MS methods, are often very close to the noise level. The interpretations often show amazing ability to pick an anomaly out of many similarlooking and similar amplitude noise peaks. Combined with after-survey recalibration, this allows the MS or BS interpreter to adjust the data slightly until noise peaks line up with all the expected targets, giving the appearance of accurate results. Most voodoo methods also return fantastic success rates. Rates of 90% to 100% are commonly claimed, and case histories are delivered to prove it! It is no wonder that people desperate for success are convinced to try the method. Dubious Theoretical Basis This is an obvious characteristic. All true geophysical methods are based on known laws of physics. If a new, real geophysical method is offered, the developers generally take great pains to prove their physics, and publish it. The theory behind the method is described and field data are shown to demonstrate its applicability in real environments. More often than not, a new system is a new application of pre-existing theory, applied to new geology. This is not so with voodoo geophysics. Over sellers might stretch theory. Misguided scientists bend theory, apply it contrary to existing laws, break it, or invent new theories themselves. Blatant scoundrels generally make up entirely new principles of physics, or hide the principles completely. A common method of inventing a theory is to base it on some new field of science that has been in the public media. The client might know something about the theory, but will not be up-to-date on the real developments. They can be easily misled into believing that this new BS system is cutting-edge science. Quantum physical principles are popular these days as the heart of voodoo methods. Most people have heard of it, but really do not know anything about it. The gravity waves of the Elf “Oil Sniffer” scam are an example. The BS system “science” generally rides just ahead of current theory, so it advances with the passing of time. Methods that detect various types of emanations directly from the material being detected are popular. Oftentimes, however, the system will also detect completely different materials. It is important to recognize that the granting of a patent does not prove the scientific basis of the method. The patent office research is focused on whether the new method is novel and practical, but involves only the most cursory examination of the theoretical basis. It is left to the market to judge whether the method is scientifically and economically viable. Doubtful Explanations Most voodoo methods will have a very difficult time explaining their method and their results. Very often, the pseudo-science has not been well thought-out, but they would never admit to doubt. All questions about the system will be answered immediately. The answers will first follow the marketing plan and be quite imaginative. Under continued pressure they will be increasingly ad hoc, and sometimes fall back on the “I don’t understand it, I just sell it” line. If the pressure of questioning gets too high, or starts to find holes in the explanations, the seller may resort to aggressiveness, accusing the questioner of trying to steal ideas, or perhaps being a conspirator from “big corporations”. In the final extreme the BS seller will threaten legal action. It is this threat of lawsuits that most commonly prevents honest geophysicists from expressing their opinion on voodoo methods – it this threat that limits our freedom in this paper to describe existing voodoo systems. Phenomenal Interpretation The methods are secret; the results are amazingly accurate. The voodoo geophysical systems generally produce incredible accuracy of detection, and detect incredibly subtle changes in geology to great depths in the earth, or. These results are interpreted with mysterious or even secret methods, which seldom admit any doubt. For a voodoo system to sell itself, it has to promise unequivocal results. Often the system claims to respond to a host of target types, despite gross differences in their physical parameters. Geophysicists are often accused of using a “What do you want it to be?” interpretation: voodoo methods really do offer this. One method that comes to mind emerged originally from the oil patch; a system capable of detecting minute amounts of hydrocarbons by their particular effect on an imaginary component of a “fundamental” force. However, the same system was sold to mining companies as capable of detecting metallic mineralization, with no explanation of how the laws of physics had changed. While it was so sensitive as to be affected by the movement of stellar bodies, it was not affected by the movement of much nearer bodies, like the operators. Non-Technical Marketing Another high-marks indicator of Dark Side geophysics is the marketing approach. If an honest supplier wants to sell a new system in a technical field like geophysics, he or she assumes that they will have to convince their clients-to-be of the technical merits of their method. Technical papers are published, systems are displayed at technical conferences (like SAGEEP), and case histories are developed. The seller of the BS system knows that his “science” cannot be supported. The marketing approach will be targeted through non-technical channels, often to the highest echelons of corporations and agencies and directly to the media. Senior managers see the fantastic new system as the key for a quick, technical edge on the competition. Their skepticism, if they have any, is quickly lost in their desire to get the fantastic new capability of the BS system. The BS sellers are sophisticated marketers, expert at minimizing the doubts of the managers and convincing them pseudoscience that there is no need for real scientific review. Secrecy (see below) is a key ingredient in this deception. With their innovative technology, entrepreneurial nature, and flamboyance, these marketers are the darlings of the financial media. Business reporters are not qualified to assess the technical viability – nor are they so inclined. A few years ago there was a report in a major financial newspaper on a “new” geophysical wonder for oil exploration. While technical details in the report were scarce, most geophysicists would immediately suspect that this was a system from the dark side. I contacted the journalist who wrote the story, who admitted that she was not qualified to judge the technology, but that the story was interesting enough that it had to be told. Because of haste to publish, and perhaps professional competitiveness, the business reporters do not consult the science reporters that most media chains employ to render their opinion. The unfortunate misguided scientists, not realizing the shaky basis of their systems, may appear at a technical conference. Hopefully, most of the geophysicists will recognize that the system is not viable, and the show could be the downfall of the system. Secrecy Secrecy is often the key to recognizing true scams as distinct from other dark side geophysics. An honest scientist assumes he’ll be doubted – a dishonest person assumes he’ll be trusted. While all new inventions and products retain some secrecy in order to retain a competitive edge, there are also commonly accepted levels of disclosure. An honest system will describe the physical interaction of the method with the earth and the type of field or particle that is measured at the receiver. If it is based on a new theory of interaction with the earth or receiver, that theory will be supported in a manner that allows others to examine and duplicate the same principles. If a voodoo system does not have a sound basis the seller can hardly expose all the details to public knowledge. A cloak of secrecy is used to hide the workings of the system from the market, particularly from technical experts. Extreme secrecy, to hide a Blatant system, is often justified by the conspiracy claim – a claim that big corporate interests in the field are trying to steal the invention, perhaps to destroy it to protect their market share. This claim was used most successfully by the seller of the car that ran on water instead of gasoline. He explained to investors that his secrecy about the operation and his lack of media exposure was necessary to protect the technology from the big oil companies, who of course wanted to protect their market for gasoline. The most powerful justification for secrecy can be military, and now homeland security. The seller whispers that his system has potential military applications, and so must be kept secret from the enemy. This was used successfully by the sellers of the Elf oil sniffer. Bomb detection equipment is enjoying a welcoming market, claiming the ability to detect bombs and other deadly weapons at incredible distances, through walls and into cars. Preventing Scams Recognizing and Avoiding Scams The keys to preventing scams are healthy skepticism, proper scientific evaluation and good communication. Use the analysis described above to develop a critical review of the system. Collect information from the seller, but treat it as the biased presentation that it will be. BS methods can deliver highly convincing case histories with pictures of smiling clients and glowing reports. Remember that testimonials are not scientific evidence, and could be spin-doctored or even invented. Talk to the past clients, and question not only their level of satisfaction, but their expertise and method of testing the system. In the case of exploration, testimonials are generally collected immediately after the survey, when the client is ecstatic about the many targets they have, but before the targets have been tested. For bomb-sniffers and other detectors, the testimonials are often taken when the client is still impressed by the dramatic demonstrations, and before they test the system in the real world. The Internet is a great place to search for information, but also requires healthy skepticism, as the source is often unknown, and not accountable. Testing For Voodoo Methods It is important to approach the testing with an open mind. What may appear at first to be misguided science or a scam, may in fact be a truly new application of a physical principle previously unused in geophysics (remember how many eminent scientists claimed: “If man were meant to fly, he’d have wings!”). If the tester is perceived to have a bias against the new system, the charlatans will use that in their counter-arguments. They will claim that the tester rejected the system because of a fear of the challenge, and so present a case to ignore the testing completely. Irving Langmuir, in his talk at the colloquium on pathological science in 1953, described a wonderful example of a test to expose the bad science behind N-rays. N-rays were “discovered” by physicist called Blondlot. The N rays were emitted by a hot wire in an iron tube with a small window covered by aluminum. The rays were spotted by a very weak glow on a sheet of paper, which had to be observed in a very dark room. Another physicist, R.W. Wood, went to see these experiments, including one in which the N-rays were refracted at an angle onto the paper using an aluminum prism. Wood had his doubts, and asked for the experiment to be repeated. The results repeated exactly. However, as soon as the room had been darkened, Wood had removed the prism from the apparatus and put it in his pocket! Publication of these results ended the research into N-rays. Horowitz used a similar blind test to expose the Oil Sniffer. When the USGS tested the electrogeochemical method (CHIM), they used a different test. The CHIM method used powerful electrical currents through acid-filled electrodes to draw ions from the soil for geochemical assay. After collecting data with the system i ...
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